Baghdad vote draws political heavyweights back to the field

Some 27 electoral lists and 21 independent candidates will compete for Baghdad’s 69 parliamentary seats in the upcoming elections. With the electoral system reverting back to proportional representation and each province considered a single voting district, heavyweight politicians who had sat out in 2021 are returning to the field.

The key to maximizing seat gains under this system will be the total vote share each list can amass in a province, meaning prominent candidates with the ability to draw large numbers of votes are central to each alliance’s strategy. The 27 competing lists include both coalitions of multiple parties and standalone entities, but the real contest is likely to play out among around 15 leading lists representing Shia, Sunni, and self-described civil movements. Each list can field a maximum of 138 candidates in Baghdad, equivalent to twice the number of seats up for grabs. Although candidate order on the ballot does not affect the chances of winning, it remains an indicator of seniority within each list.