Is Sadr's return to politics imminent?

Claims that Muqtada Al-Sadr’s reemergence on the public scene suggests an imminent return to politics are premature. While Sadr is clearly mobilizing his grassroots base by reconstituting various political and social arms of his movement, the threshold needed for a fully-fledged return to the political fray has still not been surpassed. Here are three indications that would signal Sadr’s formal intent to make a political comeback:

1. Official spokespeople: While Sadr has given the green light for the Sadrist Bloc to reconstitute itself under the leadership of former MP and close confidant Hasan Al-Athari, reconvening meetings does not mean that the Sadrists intend to reengage in the political process. One sure sign of intent is if senior Sadrists begin speaking on the record to the media. Figureheads like Athari, as well as Hasan Al-Kaabi and Hakim Al-Zamili, were authoritative representatives of Sadr prior to his full withdrawal from politics in August 2022.

While Sadrist figureheads may be speaking off the record or on background to the media, they have yet to be authorized by Sadr to speak in an official capacity on his behalf. But key surrogates have been given the go-ahead to reemerge in the public space, including Munaf Al-Musawi, a prominent political commentator who heads a Sadrist-aligned think tank.