IHEC announced provisional results on Tuesday evening. The results represent 94.4% of the tallied votes, and the final results are expected to be released within a few days.
A full breakdown of seat distribution for each province can only be accurately calculated once all of the votes have been counted. In the meantime, here are some initial observations:
The Nabni Alliance, which is an expanded iteration of the pro-Hashd Fatah Alliance, outperformed all of its competitors, coming on top in 5 out of 15 provinces. In comparison to the 2021 parliamentary election, Iraq Horizons analysis shows that Nabni doubled the total number of votes it won in the central and southern provinces.
Nabni’s primary Shia competitor, Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law, performed slightly better than in 2021 in terms of its total vote tally, expanding its voter base by around 16%. But by failing to win more seats than Nabni, this result will be seen as a defeat for Maliki, whose position within the Coordination Framework has been weakened by this result.
Ammar Al-Hakim’s State Forces, which also includes Haider Al-Abadi, performed much better under the proportional representation electoral system. State Forces was able to expand its voter base by around 20% and win seats in most of the central and southern provinces.
Despite Mohammed Al-Halbusi’s unseating from parliament, Taqaddum was able to maintain its voter base in most of the provinces where it competed. In Anbar, Halbusi reasserted his dominance over the province by winning a majority of seats. Additionally, his political allies Governor Ali Farhan and Minister Khalid Battal also performed well, and their combined vote tally is more than what Taqaddum secured in 2021. Taqaddum also won the same number of votes in Baghdad as it did in 2021, coming out on top, slightly ahead of second-placed Nabni, although both parties will likely take 9 or 10 seats each.
But Taqaddum lost around 40% of its voter base in Ninewa, much of which was taken by former governor Najm Al-Juburi’s new party. Taqaddum’s main Sunni rivals failed to capitalize on Halbusi’s unseating, although the Iraqi Islamic Party, which ran under Falih Al-Fayyadh’s alliance, performed particularly well in Ninewa.
Among the most interesting developments has been the resounding success of incumbent provincial governors who ran with their own parties. Notably, the governors of Basra, Karbala and Wasit came out on top in their respective provinces, as did the former governor of Ninewa, beating all the established parties. These outcomes underscore the impact of local politics in shaping the political landscape at the national level.