Provisional election results released: initial takeaways

IHEC announced provisional results on Tuesday evening. The results represent 94.4% of the tallied votes, and the final results are expected to be released within a few days.

A full breakdown of seat distribution for each province can only be accurately calculated once all of the votes have been counted. In the meantime, here are some initial observations:

• The Nabni Alliance, which is an expanded iteration of the pro-Hashd Fatah Alliance, outperformed all of its competitors, coming on top in 5 out of 15 provinces. In comparison to the 2021 parliamentary election, Iraq Horizons analysis shows that Nabni doubled the total number of votes it won in the central and southern provinces.

• Nabni’s primary Shia competitor, Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law, performed slightly better than in 2021 in terms of its total vote tally, expanding its voter base by around 16%. But by failing to win more seats than Nabni, this result will be seen as a defeat for Maliki, whose position within the Coordination Framework has been weakened by this result.