Three paths for government formation amid regional war

The escalating war in Iran is reshaping the political calculations surrounding government formation in Iraq. As military operations expand across the region, leaders within the Coordination Framework are recalibrating their positions in light of a dramatically altered security environment.

Three broad trajectories are currently emerging for how government formation may unfold.

The first scenario centers on the effective collapse of Nouri Al-Maliki’s bid for the premiership. Prior to the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the debate surrounding Maliki’s nomination focused on the possibility that the US could impose sanctions on Iraq or on Maliki personally were he to press ahead with his candidacy. However, the escalation of the conflict has fundamentally shifted the risk calculus.