UNAMI chief extends diplomatic outreach to Iran
The UN Special Representative to Iraq, Mohamed Al-Hassan, has been actively engaging with key political and regional stakeholders in an effort to mitigate escalating tensions in the region, particularly the risk of Israel's military attacks spilling into Iraq. Following his meeting last week with Sayyid Muhammad Ridha Al-Sistani, the son of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, Hassan has intensified his diplomatic efforts, signaling the urgency of the situation. His recent engagements underscore a dual focus: the need for de-escalation and the necessity for substantive political reform within Iraq.
Hassan's diplomatic mission took him to Tehran on Tuesday, where he met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif. These meetings marked Hassan’s first visit to Iran since assuming his position but were preceded by earlier discussions with the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad last month. His engagements reflect a calculated approach to addressing Iran’s proxies in Iraq that make up the "axis of resistance" and their implications for Iraq's stability.
Prior to his trip to Tehran, Hassan held meetings with Iraqi leaders, including PM Sudani, President Rashid, and influential figures such as Nouri Al-Maliki and Ammar Al-Hakim. While the official statements released after these meetings emphasized the importance of security and stability, sources indicate that Hassan directly conveyed Sistani’s discontent with the lack of progress among Iraq’s political leadership. This dissatisfaction is tied to the broader failure to curtail the influence of resistance factions aligned with Iran, which continue to operate with significant autonomy despite calls for their disbandment or reintegration under state authority, and the urgent need for decisive action to prevent Iraq from becoming embroiled in escalating regional conflicts.
Sistani's November statement regarding the restriction of arms to the state has become a central theme in Hassan’s diplomatic messaging. This statement, interpreted by many as a direct critique of resistance factions such as Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, underscores the need for Iraq to assert full control over armed groups operating within its borders. Hassan’s recent meetings have highlighted the inadequacy of current government measures in addressing this issue. While the Sudani administration has exerted pressure on these factions, their activities have only been temporarily subdued, particularly following the assassination of Hizbullah chief Hasan Nasrallah. These factions have significantly reduced their attacks on Israel and kept a low profile, but their potential to destabilize Iraq remains a pressing concern.
Hassan’s visit to Tehran signals that the solution to this issue requires deeper engagement with Iran, given its substantial influence over these factions. His discussions in Tehran likely aimed to secure Iranian cooperation in curbing the activities of resistance groups and preventing further escalation. However, achieving this will require a delicate balance, as Iran's commitment to its "axis of resistance" strategy remains a core pillar of its regional policy.
Compounding these challenges is the position of the Hashd al-Shaabi, which is often conflated with resistance factions. Recent efforts by Hashd leaders, including Falih Fayyadh, to emphasize their institutional alignment with the Iraqi government reflect a strategic attempt to dissociate from non-state actors that could be targeted by Israel. This includes statements clarifying that the Hashd would not intervene in Syria, particularly when the Assad regime was facing potential collapse. However, without significant restructuring and reform, the Hashd risks remaining entangled in the perception of being an extension of Iran’s resistance strategy, further jeopardizing Iraq’s stability.
The Sudani government faces a formidable task in navigating these intersecting challenges. On one hand, it must address domestic dissatisfaction with the political elite’s inability to implement meaningful reforms, as articulated by Sistani. On the other, it must formulate a comprehensive strategy to deal with armed groups, including the resistance factions and the Hashd, to ensure Iraq does not become a battleground for regional conflicts. Hassan’s role in conveying these messages has become pivotal, bridging Sistani’s concerns with the broader diplomatic efforts of UNAMI to engage regional and international actors.
The situation remains precarious. Israel’s expanding military activities, coupled with the continued volatility of the resistance axis, pose a clear and present danger to Iraq. The need for “bold and swift decision-making”, as Hassan asserted last week, cannot be overstated. Iraq's leaders must rise to the occasion, leveraging both domestic and international partnerships to safeguard the country’s sovereignty and prevent the spillover of violence. Hassan’s diplomatic efforts, rooted in Sistani’s moral authority and UNAMI’s strategic backing, offer a critical opportunity to recalibrate Iraq’s trajectory amidst the region’s escalating tensions. However, the window for action is rapidly closing, and failure to act decisively risks plunging Iraq into further instability.