Will Iraq conduct a national census this year?

The government body responsible for conducting Iraq’s first population census in 27 years insists that it will take place this November. However, past delays and postponements cast doubt on whether there is sufficient political will to get it done.

Earlier this month, the Statistics and Geographic Information Systems Authority (ASGIS) announced that it had signed contracts with four specialized foreign companies, as part of its preparations for the upcoming population census scheduled for November 20. The contracted companies are American, Finnish, Canadian, and Chinese.

One of these companies will be responsible for the preparation, installation, and operation of devices, equipment, and furniture for a communications center and a census operations room. Another will be responsible for fitting the main data center and an alternative data center. The third company will implement census application systems and data security solutions, while the fourth will prepare over 120,000 tablet devices to be used in conducting the census electronically.

The ASGIS, formerly known as the Central Statistics Organisation (CSO), is part of the Ministry of Planning. Parliament passed a new law in October last year that expands the authority of the institution under a new name. ASGIS is headed by a director general, Dr. Dhia Awad Kadhim, and the census preparations are overseen by the Deputy Minister of Planning for Administrative Affairs, Dr. Azhaar Husayn Salih. ASGIS is working closely with the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) in Iraq through its advisor, Dr. Mahdi Al-Allaq, and has also contracted a Chinese consulting firm that specializes in conducting censuses.

Despite federal budget allocations of around 400 billion IQD ($308 million) for conducting the census, doubts remain about whether it will be held on time. Previous governments under Abdul Mahdi and Kadhimi pledged to conduct the census but failed to do so.

The multiple postponements stem largely from a lack of political will, as updated demographic data could significantly impact policymaking, particularly in the allocation of financial resources across Iraq. The Kurdish leadership in Erbil is particularly resistant to a census due to potential implications for budgetary allocations. The fact that the census will not record sect-based affiliations means that there is less pushback from Sunni leaders.

In November last year, PM Sudani announced his government’s commitment to holding the census in 2024. With weakened Kurdish influence in Baghdad due to internal infighting, it has become more politically expedient for the government to push ahead with the census.

At a conference in Baghdad on April 24, the deputy representative of UNFPA Iraq affirmed their “unwavering” commitment to implementing the census, adding that the census is “pivotal towards sustainable development and delivering services without leaving anyone behind.” Although UNFPA has remained engaged throughout the process, it has been a couple of years since they made a public statement on the census.

Iraq’s last population census was conducted in 1997 but it did not include the Kurdistan Region. The Ministry of Planning estimates that Iraq’s population has surpassed 43 million, with a growth rate of around 2.5%.

While there is greater political and operational momentum to hold a census this year, relations between Baghdad and Erbil remain uneasy due to a number of outstanding issues on federalism, and Sudani will need to strike a deal with the KRG in order to secure their buy-in.